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How bad does it get? (Covid-19)

tahoebum said:
His college is unusual as 95% of the 3,100 students live on campus so the town of 20,000 which also includes Carleton College with about the same number of students, will be a ghost town starting tomorrow with all students from both colleges required to leave campus. Less than 350 students at his school will remain in town and 60% are out of state.
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that's a polar opposite of ASU.
 
e1iterate said:
Are you suggesting we just Nuke Washington?
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No, but some have suggested it should be called the WA-19 virus in the United States.:rolleyes:
 
e1iterate said:
Are you suggesting we just Nuke Washington?
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No I’m suggesting that if you concede that Washington State is an outlier, then the US fatality rate would be at 0.5% ... Now I’m wondering did we shut down the economy for this?
 
Just saw on the news that the "social distancing" suggestions/orders will probably last a minimum of 8 weeks, but after that period of time, the policies will come and go as the virus continues to reemerge. That is until a vaccine is available.
 
JDax said:
The fatality rate will be lower than 2%...

A quarantined boat is an ideal ...natural laboratory to study a virus...

Diamond Princess stats:

3,711 people on board
705 tested positive for the coronavirus
6 died
All 6 were more than 70 years old.

Fatality rate: 0.85 percent.

I think when it’s all said and done the fatality rate will be between 0.5 and 0.7. These models using the 2-4% fatality rate are overstating the number.
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Are you a doctor licensed to practice medicine ?
 
DG_1234 said:
Are you a doctor licensed to practice medicine ?
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Don’t need to be a Doctor to break down statistics. But thanks for asking... 👍🏻
 
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DG_1234 said:
Are you a doctor licensed to practice medicine ?
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One does not need to be a doctor nor practice medicine to exercise common sense...


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I haven’t found ONE loaf of bread in the last 2 days. I end up getting whatever rolls or tortillas are available. Rice, gone. I ended up getting some cans of beans, just because. Yesterday in Sam’s Club the line was about 40 deep for TP. They’re still doing it for some reason.


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Jrt13 said:
One does not need to be a doctor nor practice medicine to exercise common sense...


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I wasn’t (nor have I ever) making any sort of medical statement. All of my posts have been related to the available data on this situation.

Looking at the available data, attempting to a
discuss the question that started this thread, “How bad will it get”.
 
41888233-2CC9-4F02-A563-E944699C9FCE.jpeg
This might be worse than the actual virus outbreak itself...

With a forecast of Global GDP of 1.25%, it implies a recession less severe than in 1981-82 & 2008-09, but worse than in 1991 & 2001.

🤮
 
JDax said:
Don’t need to be a Doctor to break down statistics. But thanks for asking... 👍🏻
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Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night? If yes, then that works.

 
By the way, no way is China +3.0% for 2020. #Propaganda!
 
If you live in Philly you’re going to need Snake Plissken to get you out after this is over. Let the burglary and looting begin...

Philadelphia police to delay arrests for certain non-violent crimes

Philadelphia Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw stressed Wednesday that the temporary policy does not mean the department is turning a blind eye to crime.
www.fox29.com www.fox29.com
 
Reframmellator said:
I think the fatality rate will be greatly influenced by case load. If the caseload does not overwhelm medical system capacity, the rates will be lower (Diamond Princess.) If the system is out of capacity, more will die because there will not be enough lifesaving care available for everyone (Italy.)

Which is why I have become less casual about this and more of an advocate of flattening the curve by reducing social interactions. The challenge with that is it prolongs the outbreak and the economic toll that exacts.
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I agree that the capacity issue is key. The Imperial College report was interesting. If the number of hospitalizations/critical cases by age number is accurate, the overwhelming majority of people will get through this fine. But enough people who need hospitalization that people who would normally recover but can't get the treatment they need will inflate the mortality rate. It will also inflate the panic rate as well.
 
Vortex said:
Did you stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night? If yes, then that works.

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I lol’d...

You don’t need to be a football coach to know to bet against a team with a Freshman QB making their first road start...
 
Vortex said:
By the way, no way is China +3.0% for 2020. #Propaganda!
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It’s Goldman Sachs’ forecast not mine, but 3.0% growth seems aggressive, with basically a lost quarter.
 
I don’t think it gets any worse the H1N1
 
tehuti said:
I haven’t found ONE loaf of bread in the last 2 days. I end up getting whatever rolls or tortillas are available. Rice, gone. I ended up getting some cans of beans, just because. Yesterday in Sam’s Club the line was about 40 deep for TP. They’re still doing it for some reason.


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well luckily @Canadan just bought a bread maker, maybe we can do a post drive during the remainder of March for some homemade bread
 
BuckNasty said:
well luckily @Canadan just bought a bread maker, maybe we can do a post drive during the remainder of March for some homemade bread
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My wife will be baking bread this weekend!


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JDax said:
It’s Goldman Sachs’ forecast not mine, but 3.0% growth seems aggressive, with basically a lost quarter.
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The Chinese Communist Party has a published goal of doubling GDP in the period 2010-2020. To achieve that, they need 5.6% GDP growth in 2020. It is an economic goal, but it is mostly a political goal. They will meet it, pulling out all the stimulus stops to do it. Will the final numbers conform to generally accepted accounting principles? :unsure::unsure::unsure:
 
BuckNasty said:
well luckily @Canadan just bought a bread maker, maybe we can do a post drive during the remainder of March for some homemade bread
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bro, I really can't wait for it to get here hahahaha
 
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