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Moneyball - Will it work in the NFL?

PhillyV

PhillyV

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Today the Browns made a revolutionary hire in the NFL world by hiring Paul DePodesta of the New York Mets as the teams chief strategy officer. If you have seen the movie "Moneyball" he is the character portrayed by Jonah Hill. This is directly from an ESPN article...

[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]"DePodesta -- who helped the Mets become National League champions last season -- will be above newly hired executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown in the organizational hierarchy and will report to owner Jimmy Haslam and team president Alec Scheiner, according to sources."[/FONT]

[FONT=Georgia, Times New Roman, Times, serif]So the question is can Moneyball and analytics work in the NFL?[/FONT]
 
Interesting hire. I'm not a moneyball guy. I mean if you are the Browns, you might as well start thinking outside the box, because that franchise is and has been a mess.
 
Personally I don't think so. So many different schemes and playbooks...

Sure seems like a Browns thing to do IMO.
 
Seems like a bit of a stretch, but it doesn't surprise me the Browns are giving it a go. Given their track record thinking outside the box may actually help them. And this is coming from a 49ers fan.
 
jdtox said:
Personally I don't think so. So many different schemes and playbooks...

Sure seems like a Browns thing to do IMO.
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Wouldnt a Browns move be to do the same old same old year after year? This is innovative if anything and honestly it cant get worse.
 
To some extent yes I think it will help. The ability to find undervalued players in a league that has a salary cap could be a huge potential advantage.
 
I think it will work to an extent. Find talent that is cost effective, see what results.
Although injuries are a much larger part of football than baseball, and the "sample size" is significantly smaller.
 
It depends on what we mean by "Work".

Will it ID unconventional ways of measuring value? Yes.
Will it ID ways to take advantage of inefficiencies in the market? Yes.
Will it make the Browns a winning organization? Maybe.
 
The only thing that will fix the Browns and the Redskins is new ownership........
 
I honestly dont know. But the Browns are desperate.
 
PhillyV said:
Today the Browns made a revolutionary hire in the NFL world by hiring Paul DePodesta of the New York Mets as the teams chief strategy officer. If you have seen the movie "Moneyball" he is the character portrayed by Jonah Hill. This is directly from an ESPN article...

"DePodesta -- who helped the Mets become National League champions last season -- will be above newly hired executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown in the organizational hierarchy and will report to owner Jimmy Haslam and team president Alec Scheiner, according to sources."

So the question is can Moneyball and analytics work in the NFL?
Click to expand...

If you believe in Money Ball as a system, then it would work better in the NFL, than any other sport, because of the way contracts are structured.
 
On its own I can see why a franchise would go this route given the current state of the Browns. As far as can it work? i'm guessing it can, but the NFL has proven you need a smart QB, solid run game & great defense to be competitive week in and week out. Two of those three cost $$ in today's NFL, so this process better help you find the diamonds in the rough so to speak and build your team.

I just think the NFL is a different beast and i have doubts it can work.
 
PhillyV said:
Wouldnt a Browns move be to do the same old same old year after year? This is innovative if anything and honestly it cant get worse.
Click to expand...

True it might be thinking outside the box. BUT as a Lions fan I understand your pain and had they done it I would say the same thing. Just like the Lions who hired a GM who has never had anything to do with Football EVER. He was a numbers guy for the Ford Estate and even at his own press conference he said no other team would likely consider hiring him because he knows nothing about football. WHAT?

Football to me just seems different. New and innovative rarely seems to work. Taking guys from position coaches and making them Head Coaches = fail. Taking a baseball guy to football to me says no it will not work. But hey I'm rooting for you.
 
Spivey said:
I think it will work to an extent. Find talent that is cost effective, see what results.
Although injuries are a much larger part of football than baseball, and the "sample size" is significantly smaller.
Click to expand...


Agreed!!
 
This is exactly what the Browns do year in and year out. They do something different than the proven methodology that has worked time and time again in the NFL. If we would have only drafted who the expert panelists had projected we take since 2001 we would be in an entirely different position. Football is not an analytics game, it is a big play game. You aren't going to grind out wins by looking at and managing statistics as you can in baseball. The season is too short, and the score can change too quickly in the NFL. From a business perspective it could be intriguing, however we need TALENT on the field more than we need it in the analytics department.
 
JB said:
If you believe in Money Ball as a system, then it would work better in the NFL, than any other sport, because of the way contracts are structured.
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Thats exactly it. You are stuck with commitments in the NFL like you are in baseball. The system would have to work better in the NFL because of that. Just interested to see how that would translate to the playing field
 
I like football but I don't follow religiously very much but hasn't New England been doing this for years? I mean outside of Brady and Gronk what super star names have they brought in? Sure Randy Moss but they pay him crazy high. I feel like the Pats are the absolute best at finding players that play well together and get the job done without having to break the bank. I don't really see why this formula couldn't work for another organization. However they don't have Tom Brady at QB either.
 
Gunner said:
This is exactly what the Browns do year in and year out. They do something different than the proven methodology that has worked time and time again in the NFL. If we would have only drafted who the expert panelists had projected we take since 2001 we would be in an entirely different position. Football is not an analytics game, it is a big play game. You aren't going to grind out wins by looking at and managing statistics as you can in baseball. The season is too short, and the score can change too quickly in the NFL. From a business perspective it could be intriguing, however we need TALENT on the field more than we need it in the analytics department.
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What exactly have they done "different"? Honest question because to me they seem to have been trying to mock certain franchises and just sucked at doing so
 
PhillyV said:
Thats exactly it. You are stuck with commitments in the NFL like you are in baseball. The system would have to work better in the NFL because of that. Just interested to see how that would translate to the playing field
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I actually think its the opposite. Taking a guy in, if he doesnt work, you cut him in the NFL.
Plus you are on a level playing field with every other team financially.

In MLB you are stuck with that contract and you are not on a level playing field with every other team.
 
Looks like more poop tossing on the wall to see if it sticks

No big time free agent is coming to this hell of a mess

Moneyball wont help in drafting, that is where this team has killed itself for 15 years

Then again Dwayne Bowe just got paid $1.8M per CATCH this year
 
Six4three5 said:
I like football but I don't follow religiously very much but hasn't New England been doing this for years? I mean outside of Brady and Gronk what super star names have they brought in? Sure Randy Moss but they pay him crazy high. I feel like the Pats are the absolute best at finding players that play well together and get the job done without having to break the bank. I don't really see why this formula couldn't work for another organization. However they don't have Tom Brady at QB either.
Click to expand...

Personally I think with the Pats it's more about consistency from ownership to the coaches. As long as I can remember they've been pretty frugal and have no issues letting stars walk and then replacing them with younger, cheaper talent.
 
JB said:
I actually think its the opposite. Taking a guy in, if he doesnt work, you cut him in the NFL.
Plus you are on a level playing field with every other team financially.

In MLB you are stuck with that contract and you are not on a level playing field with every other team.
Click to expand...
ya that should have said "aren't stuck in the NFL like you are in MLB" my bad
 
mikedean441 said:
Looks like more poop tossing on the wall to see if it sticks

No big time free agent is coming to this hell of a mess

Moneyball wont help in drafting, that is where this team has killed itself for 15 years

Then again Dwayne Bowe just got paid $1.8M per CATCH this year
Click to expand...
You are correct about big time FA's, but I think you may be wrong about drafting. It will develop and use different criteria for evaluating talent. Look at what has happened in the NBA.
 
Six4three5 said:
I like football but I don't follow religiously very much but hasn't New England been doing this for years? I mean outside of Brady and Gronk what super star names have they brought in? Sure Randy Moss but they pay him crazy high. I feel like the Pats are the absolute best at finding players that play well together and get the job done without having to break the bank. I don't really see why this formula couldn't work for another organization. However they don't have Tom Brady at QB either.
Click to expand...

This is my thought too. They have a few high priced players but everyone else they seem to plug in at skills positions aren't stars or big names minus Moss. When guys get expensive they dump them or trade them
 
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