I'd say 75 to 85 percent of the time in this situation, par or better.Hypothetical Question :
Assume you hit your drive to a yardage that puts a 9 Iron or better in your hands for your approach shot on a par 4. This could be in the fairway or rough, either way you have a clear shot to the green.
How often do you walk away with a par? This includes GIR + 2 putt or just off the green for an up & down.