We have spent the last few days combing through some data that suggests that over 85% of missed approach shots are left short. This could be for a number of reasons including
Poor Contact
Not hitting it as far as we think we do
Playing to a front pin yardage rather than giving enough room for minor misses.
Fear of going too far
We hear a lot of talk on the forum about random balls flying too far, etc. Yet if our stats are accurate, those percentages are quite small. Looking at my own personal data, it appears as though when I miss the green, I only go long on approach shots 6% of the time.
Where do you think your own game falls in this spectrum of stats?
Remember Jack Nicklaus claimed that for him 2 or 3 perfectly struck shots per round was exceptionally good. So, around the golf course he clubbed himself expecting a slight mishit.
I don’t have any stats to back things up. Last year I think I missed left more than short but I was struggling with my swing. I rarely miss over the green but I think that is true for most of us so I miss short more than long. At my course long is invariably bad so I tend to play short if in between clubs. I do have a very good understanding of how far my average shots go and when in between clubs I generally take extra club and knock it down so that tends to make misses better.
I will add that from the fairway I can’t remember having a club go a full club more than expected for no reason. I have hit flyers on occasion out of the rough back when I had more speed in my swing that was something I had to pay attention to but there was a reason not a random jumper.
I sometimes wonder if some of us play at a level that may be a bit unfamiliar to others.
Not all rounds were recorded last year, but this is basically my 6i game. The gray dots represent shots that were sampled and as you can tell, are not in a tight group with 10 to 15 yards of variance. Needless to say, I need to improve this weakness. In the meantime, I still get out and play rounds of golf trying my best to get it close to the green. (And if you think this is ugly, you don’t want to see my left and right dispersion.)
So if this were your game and you played courses where missing long could easily result in a lost ball on 60% of the holes, at what distance would you pull this club?
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This is what I consider my 150 yard club – and I still miss short the majority of the time. Hitting short has nothing to do with pulling the wrong club and everything to do with poorly struck shots.
By contrast, put a 9i in my hands (105-130yds) and I start playing something closer to bogey golf…
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Looking at my arccos data, exactly 50% of my missed approaches were short. 20% were long, 15% R and L. But my home course is such that for most of the holes, hitting long is either unplayable or leaves you extremely short sided that it’s not worth even attempting it. So I usually aim for middle of green, and am happy if I mishit and leave it short.
I guess my question is, the converse, what would it mean if your 50-80% of your approach shots were long? Is that necessarily a better problem to have?
What I’ve been trying to focus on this year is really nailing down my carry distances. Arccos is great, but only give you total distance which I don’t think helps to hold greens. So while arccos says my 7iron is averaging 168-170, I know my 7 iron average carry is around 160-164. This has helped a lot.
I think some people think that the one time they flushed that 7-iron for example, makes them believe that is how far they hit a 7 all the time.
Most greens are 30 yards deep. Let’s say I have 130 to the middle. I know I have 145 to the back, and 115 to the front. If there is a hazard in front of the green, I will hit my 140 club, knowing if I flush it I am still on the green, but if I mishit it, I will still end up on the green. If I hit my 130 yard club, and mishit it, I end up in the hazard.
I try to be realistic about my distances. If anything, I have a slight tendency to over-club.